Is top 4 realistic for #LFC?

With reports today following an inteview with Brendan Rodgers quoting him as saying "For me the ambition is to grow higher. We are 11 points off second and that can all turn around very quickly." - which was translated on the BBC website as Rodgers is targeting a top 2 finish, well it set me thinking.

Well this is a lie of sorts. I was probably thinking about it anyway as you were to probably to some degree... where can Liverpool finish this season?

This is a question that usually gets asked with less and less optimism as the season progresses if recent history is anything to go by.. and following our - well, stuttering start - and bobbing around mid-table halfway through the season.. well it's not looking great, is it?

Let's look at the next 5 games..a) because I quite like doing this kind of crap and b) I think they will be pretty vital in terms of where we end up (and who ends up in a red shirt from January).

Aston Villa (H)	Sat 15 Dec
Fulham (H)	Sat 22 Dec
Stoke (A)	Wed 26 Dec
QPR (A)	Sun 30 Dec
Sunderland (H)	Wed 2 Jan

Now to me they all look pretty winnable - the trickiest out of those 5 being Stoke away - on paper anyway.

I think, given our recent improvement and with the return and increasing fitness of Lucas to knit everything together that 13 points is achievable out of that lot - which would move us on to 35 points. More important for Lucas' return is the effect he has on other players and their responsibilities - a problem that we suffered from last season as well.

With Lucas back playing, he frees up the likes of Gerrard and Allen to be more progressive if they don't need to keep an eye on shoring things up quite so much. A similar problem to that last season. Charlie Adam has many qualities as a footballer, but he learnt to tackle by watching Paul Scholes - if he'd paid more attention to the rest of Scholes' game then he wouldn't be playing for Stoke now.

So Lucas is going to save the day - what about the competition.

Everton

Stoke (A)	Sat 15 Dec
West Ham (A)	Sat 22 Dec
Wigan (H)	Wed 26 Dec
Chelsea (H)	Sun 30 Dec
Newcastle (A)	Wed 2 Jan

Way trickier than our next 5 games - maybe 5 or 6 points out of that lot, which would move them on to 32. A point from the first two, beat Wigan and 2 more points from Chelsea and Newcastle.

Arsenal

Reading (A) Mon 17 Dec Wigan (A) Sat 22 Dec West Ham (H) Wed 26 Dec Newcastle (H) Sat 29 Dec Southampton (A) Tue 1 Jan

Again, not straightforward. Especially as they are wobbling at the moment. An embarrassing League Cup defeat against Bradford (with the full first team out as well) cannot have helped confidence. Maybe 8 points.
Can see them losing one of the first 2, not sure which and probably win the other. 4 points from the home games and maybe another point at Southampton. 32 points.

Chelsea

You can always tell die-hard supporters by their matching flags.

Aston Villa (H)    Sun 23 Dec
Norwich (A)       Wed 26 Dec
Everton (A)        Sun 30 Dec
QPR (H)            Wed 2 Jan

What with the faffing around in Japan, Chelsea will be playing catch-up in terms of games, so they will have played a game less by the time we get to the FA Cup games. Win the home games, draw the away. 8 points moves them onto 37. Now it could be argued that it isn't fair to only base this on 4 games for Chelsea, but whoever said that life had to be fair - it's a cruel world.

Spurs Swansea (H)	Sun 16 Dec
Stoke (H)	Sat 22 Dec
Aston Villa (A)	Wed 26 Dec
Sunderland (A)	Sat 29 Dec
Reading (H)	Tue 1 Jan

15 points.. this is where this sort of thing falls down a little. 41 points.

Now you may have noticed I've missed a few teams out that are currently between where Liverpool currently sit and 4th place.. but if West Brom, Swansea or Stoke are still knocking about at the pointy end come April then I'll eat my trousers.

So where does all this leave us? Well if my predictions are even close, and lets face it they're usually fucking miles off the table will look something like this at the start of January.

I have left a few teams out of the equation so it is possible that Everton could be further down the league than this, but the point being that Liverpool have a real chance to get in the mix for fourth and if we can get a proper run going then we will be much better placed at the start of January - which by the way is when we are talking about here - and when the transfer window opens again and we give all our money to Newcastle for some reason.

If we fuck up the next few games, we are screwed. If we are still stuttering then the desperately needed striker is going to be a lot harder to get hold of.

We need to take advantage in this "easier" run of games while we've got a little break from the UEFA Cup which I think has been making life a bit trickier. Plus I think we're starting to get something like our first XI on the pitch.

With Lucas back (I proper love Lucas, can you tell) and even Suarez having had a little rest now is the time for Liverpool to kick on.. Because if we don't we are screwed - and also the next 4 fixtures after these include 2 trips to Manchester and one to the Emirates, but we'll worry about those at a later date.