Liverpool win the Carling Cup - Not bad for starters.

Well, Sunday was lots of fun.. bit of hard work at times, but we managed to find a pub that would let Liverpool fans in eventually and that wasn't 15 deep at the bar. And after all that hard work there was a match to go to.

There is always an element to games when we are playing lower league teams, almost like a no win situation. If you brush them aside then it was easy and you were supposed to do that anyway. If you don't then it's "what the hell are you playing at, that was supposed to be easy."

But that is something of a nonsense.. especially when you are playing at Wembley. If ever a team needs motivation than playing in a Cup Final should provide plenty of it, and if it doesn't, then you've made something of an odd career choice.

Sunday was a weird one for me. I expected us to win, I suppose everyone did really. Even Cardiff fans would have gone there in hope rather than expectation - a bit presumptuous, but I bet I'm not far off the mark. So when they scored pretty early on, it puts a different spin on things straight away.

From just expecting to win, suddenly it's - "What if we don't win this." This is Wimbledon all over again. Actually it's Sheffield Wednesday all over again, as they were the last second divison (in old money) side to win the League Cup. But that was against Man Utd and therefore hilarious.

It was strange though. because I always felt pretty confident we'd turn it round. We were having more of the ball as you might expect, so when Skrtel scored it was a relief and I fully expected us to kick on. But again we didn't really take the game by the scruff of the neck and, well make life easy for ourselves. Or rather Cardiff didn't make it easy for us and all credit to them for that. Unlike Brighton last week who not so much waved the white flag in surrender, rather fell on their own swords - three times.

But we got there in the end with the customary win on penalties. I make it 2003 the last time we won a trophy that didn't go down to pens, with AC Milan and West Ham since then. But given Liverpool's almost Germanic efficiency when it comes down the crunch it almost takes the fun out of it.

I think I'm right in saying that Liverpool have only ever lost on penalties twice (to Wimbledon years ago and Northampton under Woy) out of something like 14 occasions. Pretty efficient.

So where does this all leave us. Well we have a trophy in the bag and we've qualified for Europe, so already we've done better than last season.

We're one more game away from a return to Wembley - if we beat Stoke and get to the FA Cup semi - shouldn't be at Wembley but how can you argue about the history of the FA Cup in the face of the FA balance sheets.. only 1 winner there. By the way if that does happen we're nailed on to get Everton - Spurs v Chelsea in the other one.

The Arsenal result on Sunday was more than a little surprising and given our current position not ideal. With Spurs 2-0 up it seemed to be going well - even if there was a bit of simian cheating going on. But the recovery from Arsenal came just at the wrong time for us.

With their trip to Anfield on Saturday a Spurs win would have left Arsenal on the floor mentally (especially after recent form) and a Liverpool win would have taken us to within a point with a game in hand. The Spurs collapse gives them a shot in the arm, with even the likes of Rosicky scoring goals.

Now Saturday is a must win game, just to keep touch with 4th spot. To be fair it probably was a must win game before Sundays result, but now it definitely is.

As good as was to see Liverpool players dancing about at Wembley again - even though from the back row they looked pretty tiny -  if we are going to continue the progression we've made 4th spot is vital. Now it's right to say that you don't get any medals for finishing fourth, and given the option the FA Cup would be preferable to 4th - but without the income the Champions League generates, both financially and the viability for transfer targets, then we are going to find it difficult to continue to progress at the rate that we clearly have been doing.

I realise I have completely contradicted myself there. Finishing  fourth is vital, but winning trophies is the point to the whole thing. More vital for next season, than this I suppose. If we want to be at the pointy end of things this time next year it will be easier if we are welcoming AC Milan to Anfield than Metalist Kharkiv - no disrespect, to Metalist Kharkiv although I suspect not too many of their fans will be reading this.

Liverpool v Cardiff City - Reds back at Wembley

Only a few days to go now.. I suppose I'm writing this to get myself in the mood for the trip to Wembley more than anything.. it's sort of crept up on me for one reason or another.

It must be said that from a personal point of view I am a little wary of returning to Wembley, it doesn't exactly hold the best of memories - although I have only been the once, but that was for the 1996 Cup Final.. sat in the Man United end. Really not a good day - but when you have the chance of a last minute Cup Final ticket against Man Utd you take it I suppose - well I did anyway.

I am hoping for a better result this time around, although the only other domestic final I've been to was the Chelsea League Cup final in 2005 which again didn't go brilliantly - I was beginning to think I was a bit of a jinx when I realised that the only 2 finals I'd been to were the only two finals that Liverpool had lost since 1989.

This theory was blown out of the water a couple of months after Cardiff, following the trip to Istanbul. It should be said there were periods during that game that I thought my jinx had struck again and that it might not be our day - this is a bit of an understatement.

There is a certain irony that Liverpool's opponents on Sunday should be Cardiff City. Given that the media  delighted in informing everyone that this is our first trip to Wembley in 16 years (since the 1996 horrendousness) < I'm not sure if horrendousness is actually a word, but I think it describes that day quite well  - did I mention I was travelling on a Man Utd supporters coach - Not sure whether I'd have come out of that experience too well if we'd actually won that day, but I would have liked to have found out.

I quiet enjoyed Cardiff as a spare Wembley. Since they knocked the Old Wembley down in 2000, Liverpool did better than most when they started playing all the games at the pointy end of the season in Wales. 2 FA Cups and 2 League Cups was a decent return, and it should be pointed out that Liverpool would have gone to Wembley 11 times during the same period if they hadn't knocked it down - including FA Cup semis which is a nonsense, but that isn't going to change any time soon.

Liverpool are strong favourites on Sunday, which in itself presents it's own problems. We were strong favourites in the 2001 final vs Birmingham which we managed to win on penalties in the end, but therein lies the point, if you win the trophy at the end, it doesn't really matter if you scraped it a bit. Do you dwell on having to go to penalties against Birmingham, or Henchoz playing as an auxiliary goalkeeper against Arsenal - No, you remember the Cup treble that season.

Also, given that the Semi-final against Man City almost seemed like the final itself as we knew that there was Championship opposition waiting if we could get past City - a degree of complacency really to be guarded against. Even if Cardiff are looking a bit wobbly at present - losing 3 out of the last 4 - only winning 1 put of 10 away from home (against a plummeting Notts Forest).

You only have to look at last season when Arsenal only needed to turn up to beat Birmingham, but didn't and we saw Birmingham win, get relegated and qualify for Europe in the same season.

They also have an old boy facing up against them, well probably squaring up given that we're talking about Craig Bellamy, who has never actually played at Wembley which is a bit surprising, but he would have played there for Wales recently, but got himself suspended (less surprising).

Personally, I would love to see Bellamy win this for us.. given that he got us to Wembley in the first place and I have forgiven him for the leg wound he inflicted on me after I landed on the seat in the row in front jumping about on the Kop after he rescued that one for us.
 
From a broader perspective, in terms of the season winning a trophy at this stage would give us a definite boost in confidence for the run-in. Especially when you consider what our direct rivals for fourth spot are going through at the moment and crashing out of the Champions League in spectacular fashion - (I know they're not out officially, not yet anyway, give it a couple of weeks).

So come Sunday, I would like to see us win (obviously) and for me at least it be the first proper trophy I'll have seen us get in this time zone. A goal or two from Bellamy would be good, but frankly as long as we win I really don't care and if we can use that to kick on and return there for the FA Cup.. well, a couple of trophies and the media might even start talk about Liverpool FC in terms of actual football and achievement on the pitch, which in recent years has been lacking.

England, Redknapp, Capello and do we really give a shit anyway.

English football lurched into it's latest 'crisis' yesterday when Fabio Capello resigned after coming out with his nonsense to the Italian media over the John Terry captaincy issue. I find the timing off this all really quite bizarre given that it came on the very day that Harry Redknapp was found not guilty in his tax evasion case - a case that's been knocking about for 5 years... in terms of timing more than a little suspicious.

Dear FA... I don't know, something obscene in Italian. 

Personally I find it all a bit too convenient that Capello jumped ship on the same day as a suitable replacement became - well, suitable. I have a suspicion that this is what Capello wanted all along.  

Give an interview to Italian TV saying something completely the opposite to your 'bosses' stand on an issue - in this case stripping John Terry of the England captaincy (admittedly a few days before Redknapp's trial verdict). Then when you get called in to a meeting about you can just say, well fuck your stupid job anyway and voila you have the perfect reason to get out of a job I suspect he couldn't be bothered with anymore anyway... because let's face it, his reputation as a manager was unlikely to be enhanced any by England's latest failure to progress beyond the quarter finals of anything. Much better to engineer a spurious reason for walking out and go and manage Anzhi Makhachkala for a million quid a game in that Klingon league presumably.

It doesn't really make sense for him to do have done this for any other reason.. other than to pick a fight that he wasn't bothered about winning anyway. The FA were right to strip John Terry of the England captaincy, especially as they have previous with taking the captaincy of people.. even Terry himself for that business with whoever it was. This issue is far more serious.. alleged racist abuse caught live on national television is not really conduct you expect of anyone really and whether he is found  guilty or not is frankly irrelevant. If a large part of your job (as it is with the England captain) is sitting in front of the press answering questions it would be helpful if 90% of the questions aren't about your impending court case.

There is a curious parallel between Capello's stance on John Terry, defending him against the FA following accusations of racism, and Kenny Dalglish's stance with the Suarez affair... with a few differences. Mainly, I would hope that Dalglish has plans to stay in his current job beyond the summer and John Terry can't think, fuck this I'll go and play for Spain instead and I wont get any of this hassle.

From England's point of view their is only one viable option in Harry Redknapp.. whose glorious record in European football amounts to one chaotic season in the Champions League straight out of the Kevin Keegan defending text book (although drawing 0-0 in San Siro was a little more disciplined). They did get back into Europe this season but the contempt they showed that competition is a little strange given the possibility of actually winning a European trophy which hasn't happened at Spurs too often over the years.  

Personally, I'd be delighted if Redknapp took over the England job. Primarily because Spurs are ticking over nicely at the moment with him in charge and if they got someone else in then there is a possibility that the wheels might come off and Spurs might remember to be a bit crap again. This does of course depend on who they get in, but I suspect it will result in taking a bit of a step backwards for a period.

I did find it quite interesting when I thought about this that that was one of the first things I considered.. OK, so this is probably going to happen, so how does it affect 'actual' football. The full-time business, not the nonsense that every man and his wife and her hairdresser gets involved with every other summer with all the flags on cars and so on. All the crap in the papers.. this time we can win it. And to be fair it would be quite good to see England win something, because it's not going to be the World Cup unless we manage to host it and when that happens I suspect we'll have Satan skating up and down the touchline as one on the linesmen.

No we can't. Because whoever the England manager is, he still has the same major drawback in that all his players are English and even the ones that aren't rubbish are knackered by the summer anyway.

One interesting and slightly depressing thought - Since England actually won the World Cup they beaten 5 teams in World Cup knockout games - Paraguay (86), Belgium and Cameroon (90), Denmark (2002) and Ecuador (2006).  In that time Germany have got to 5 World Cup Finals, winning it in 2 of those.

It's not Fabio Capello's fault that for some reason England have a warped perception of how good they ought to be.. but when it comes down to it, we're not. 

The Manchester United dilemma.

Chelsea vs Manchester United today and this game presents Liverpool fans with something of a dilemma..

A glance at the table shows that Liverpool have more interest in Chelsea's results than they do of Manchester United's as far as their direct effect on where Liverpool are in the league.

Chelsea currently sit in 4th place, which apparently these days is the equivalent of actually winning something, you only have to look at Spurs attitude to their European campaign this season to see that the pursuit of finishing in the top 4 holds more pull than (some) trophies.

Now be a good boy and this will all be over very quickly

I thought teams were supposed to be measured by what they actually won, but it seems that they are measured more in balance sheets these days - I'm getting off topic a little.

Chelsea sit 4th - 4 points ahead of Liverpool so it would seem that we want them to badly to further our own cause - well yes we do.. but also, today at least, not so much.

If Man Utd did us a favour today and we returned the favour on Monday by beating Spurs, then we would be a point off Chelsea and they would be back level with City and Harry Redknapp would be left to concentrate on more pressing matters than league title challenges.

Now this would all be very nice in the spirit of mutual co-operation, but it doesn't exactlty sit very well with me. Manchester United winning anything ever is a bad thing. If history has taught us anything it is this and also don't try to invade Russia, it's too cold.

If you look at the longer term view then we have a different spin on things. We are still in direct competition with Manchester United (technically at least). You may have noticed that they are now on 19 league titles.. they got quite excited by this as it meant that they now 'knocked us off our perch'.

Liverpool aren't going be winning the title this season.. and we are going to have to have a serious improvement if we are going to do in next season either.

In the mean time, we have to hope that some of the other birds  (stay with me on this), keep Man Utd well away from actually winning anymore titles while we get our shit together - whenever that might be. It seems in this analogy that David Silva is a set of rather sharp claws.

Man City and indeed Chelsea are quite handy as far as this goes, because in terms of winning the title (historically at least) they are both irrelevant.

Personally I would be delighted to see Man City win the league this season - having lived there for a while, the reaction of the blue half taking even 3 points off the red half of Manchester usually involves the red half throwing their toys out of the pram (or pints across pubs).

If City actually started taking titles off them it would be another level of hilarity entirely.

So where does this all leave us in terms of today? Well as far as I see it a draw would be preferable all round.
Man Utd lose out, Chelsea lose out and if both these teams aren't happy, well something must be right with the world.

The most important thing to remember in all of this... it's OUR perch. We're going to want it back at some point, so don't get used to it.. and try not to get shit all over it either. (I think I need to stop now.)

The scrap for 4th.. the next 5 games.

After the Reds convincing performance on Tuesday it got me thinking about the identical result this time last season.. the 3-0 away win at Wolves, which was last season inspired by Meireles and Torres before they moved on to Chelsea, did seem to be something of a turning point last season.

I am not suggesting that we are do anything like as badly as last season.. the blessedly short Hodgson era (more of a blip than an era really) was something of a car crash that is best forgotten.

However, we are sat currently in 6th position, which is not great - but only 4 points off 4th which apparently is worth something these days.

We are in a 4 way scrap for fourth it would seem with Chelsea, Arsenal and Newcastle. It seems a bit strange to still be including Newcastle in there but it's February and they're still in the mix so they must be doing something right.

I'm just going to look at the next 5 games, because trying to predict what's going to happen beyond that is tricky.. well more tricky.

Chelsea

Well first off all.. if you'd just like to watch this again...

Chelsea play Man Utd on Sunday and for once it would be the worst thing in the world to see Man Utd win this one, and if Torres shows himself to be as ruthless as the last time these two met  (you see it all ties in, I don't just throw this thing together) then I think Man Utd have every chance.

Chelsea have been dropping points away from home too recently, although the point at Swansea was one won rather than two dropped.

Next 5 games : Man Utd (h) 0/1 pt, Everton (a) 1pt, Bolton (h) 3pts, WBA (a) 3pts and Stoke (h) 3pts.

That would leave them on 53 points, although there is scope for them dropping a few more when the Champions League kicks in, although their trip to Napoli is just before Bolton at hope so probably not.

Newcastle (I'm going in order of where they are currently in the league)

A little bit clearer, as they don't have any distractions left, not even the FA Cup after losing to Brighton in the last round.

Demba Ba  (with hair)

Not a bad run of home games for them coming up and they now have their goals returning in the form of Demba Ba whose Senegal side had an appalling time of things in the African Nations Cup, much to the delight of Alan Pardew you would suspect. I always seem to have the Jim'll Fix It tune in my head whenever I hear Demba Ba's name, but that's getting off topic slightly.

They have Villa, Wolves and Sunderland at home, although Sunderland do seem to be resurgent under Martin O'Neill so let's say 7 points from them. The away trips in this period are to North London, which you wouldn't really expect them to get too much from - maybe a point at Arsenal if they're lucky and a kicking at Spurs. So 8 points altogether would move them onto 47. I suspect they are going to be there or thereabouts come the end of the season, which is a shame because their owner is a cock.

Liverpool  
OK - On to the important one. As I said I am hoping the Wolves result proves s the catalyst for greater things going forward. The most important factor for the upcoming games for Liverpool will be the return on Monday of Luis Suarez, who hopefully will start to form an understanding with Gerrard (who was worryingly injured for the game at Wolves) and also with Andy Carroll who seems to have begun to understand that running about and putting some effort in might prove worth while.

Liverpool do have distractions - if you can call a trip to Wembley a distraction and are also in the FA Cup although a home tie with Brighton is more favourable than the last round although that one didn't cause too many problems.

The league games for Liverpool get a bit tasty it must be said - and we would have had a derby in there as well if the trip to Wembley hadn't gotten in the way of Everton's cup final, but there you go.

Spurs (h) on Monday - tricky, especially when you consider how much Man City had to fight for 3 points at home against Spurs recently, but I think this is the kind of home game that Liverpool can raise their game for, and if you look at our last 2 home games against Man Utd and City I think the confidence may be raised, and the atmosphere on Monday will be a little chaotic with the return on Suarez. 3 pts (hopefully 2-1 win)

Man Utd (a) - not been a happy hunting ground since the 4-1 win a couple of years ago, be happy with a point from that one, although a Suarez hat-trick would be helpful if unlikely. 1pt.

Following those games we have the cup matches against Brighton then Cardiff - A win at Wembley would be a massive boost for confidence for the visit of Arsenal - again the type of opposition we raise our game for so I can see us winning that one.

The trips to Sunderland (a) (whose form by that stage may have dipped, but could still be flying) 1pt and then QPR (a) who it's difficult to see as they have a lot of new players in - including Djibril Cisse who it is nice to see back in England, but hopefully he won't be too happy that day. 3 pts.

A little biased, but I can see us getting 11 points from that lot, so 49 points.

Arsenal

A picture of Van Persie getting injured, for no reason. 

One of Arsenal's problem is one that is all the teams here want as that is the Champions League, their trip to Milan - which I can see causing them problems as they have a trip to Sunderland (whose name keeps popping up) just before and also on the way back if Sunderland win their replay in the Cup.

They have a bit of a gimme on Saturday at home against Blackburn, although Blackburn did recently pick up a point at Anfield and rather hilariously 3 more at Old Trafford.

It then gets trickier for Arsenal, Sunderland (a) looks like a point, Spurs (h) maybe another, but feasible to see Spurs winning that. Then their trip to Anfield (0 pts) which is just before the visit on Milan and then Newcastle at home (1pt) just after, so it's possible that they've just been binned out of Europe.  

I make that 6 points from 5 games, which would leave them on 43 - not a great return, but very possible given their run of games.


TABLE IN 5 GAMES TIME??

4th Chelsea - 53 pts
5th Liverpool - 49 pts (4 pts from 4th - no change from difference now)
6th Newcastle - 47 pts (6 pts from 4th - currently 3 behind)
7th Arsenal - 43 pts (10 pts from 4th - currently 5 behind)

We'll see how close I am in about a month or so, but it looks to me as though Arsenal will be on a bit of a slide and other than that it'll be pretty much as you were. But hopefully, Chelsea will implode and we'll be a couple off points off Spurs. We'll just have to wait and see.